موضوعات
آموزش و پرورش
ادبیات و زبان
پزشکی، دندانپزشکی و داروسازی
تاریخ و جغرافیا
داستان و رمان
دیگر
دین و فلسفه
روانشناسی
ریاضیات و آمار
سلامتی، تناسب اندام و رژیم غذایی
شیمی و پلیمر
علوم اجتماعی و حقوق
علوم زیستی و بیوتکنولوژی
فیزیک و نجوم
کامپیوتر و اینترنت
کتابهای کودکان و داستان
کسب و کار و اقتصاد
کشاورزی و دامپزشکی و غذا
معماری
مهندسی و فناوری
هنر و تئاتر
محصولات
Fooled By Randomness - PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: This is my book summary of Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. My notes are informal and often contain quotes from the book as well as my own thoughts. This summary also includes key lessons and important passages from the book. According to Taleb, the book's most popular chapter was Chapter 11, the one in which he compressed all the literature on the topic of miscalculating probability. Important point: “it's more random than we think, not it is all random.” Chance favors preparedness, but it is not caused by preparedness (same for hard work, skills, etc.) “This business of journalism is just about entertainment, particularly when it comes to radio and television.” As much as we want to “keep it simple, stupid” … It is precisely the simplification of issues that are actually very complex, which can be dangerous. “Things that happen with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.” “Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.” One common theory for why people pursue leadership is because of “social emotions” which cause others to be influenced by a person due to small, almost imperceptible physical signals like charisma, gestures, and gait. This has also been shown via evolutionary psychology: when you perform well in life, you get all “puffed up” in the way you carry yourself, the bounce in your step, etc. From an evolution standpoint this is great because it becomes easier to spot the most successful / desirable mate. The concept of alternative histories is particularly interesting. If you were to relive a set of events 1000 times, what would the range of outcomes be? If there is very little variance in your alternative histories (i.e. You chose to become a dentist and you will probably make more or less the same amount of money and live a similar lifestyle all 1000 times), then you are in a relatively non- random situation. Meanwhile, if there is a very wide range of normal results when considering 1,000 variations (entrepreneurs, traders, etc.), then it is a very random situation. The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. (I first learned this in baseball. Just because a pitch you call or play you call doesn't work out doesn't make it a poor choice. It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Or vice versa.) “Certainty is something that is likely to take place across the highest number of different alternative histories. Uncertainty concerns events that should take place in the lowest number of them.” You should think carefully about getting more insurance / shielding yourself from events that — although unlikely — could be catastrophic. You essentially want to insulate yourself from terrible random accidents. We have a tendency to see risks against specific things as more likely than general risks (dying in a terrorist attack while traveling vs. dying on your next trip, even though the second includes the first). We seem to overvalue the things that trigger an emotional response and undervalue the things that aren't as emotional. We are so mentally wired to overvalue the sensational stories that you can “realize informational gains by dispensing with the news.” Fascinating famous Swiss study of the amnesia patient who couldn't remember doctor's name but did remember him pricking her hand with a pin. “Every man believes that he is quite different.” It's better to value old, distilled thoughts than “new thinking” because for an idea to last so long it must be good. That is, old ideas have had to stand the test of time. New ideas have not. Some new ideas will end up lasting, but most will not. The ratio of undistilled information to distilled is rising. Let's call information that has never had to prove its truth more than once or twice, undistilled. And information that has been filtered through many years, counter arguments, and situations is distilled. You want more distilled information (concepts that stand the test of time and rigorous analysis) and less undistilled information (the news, reactionary opinions, and “cutting edge” research). There is nothing wrong with losing. The problem is losing more than you plan to lose. You need clear rules that limit your downside. (“If any investment loses one million dollars then our firm sells immediately.”) Much of what is randomness is timing. The best strategy for a given time period is often not the best strategy overall. In any given cycle, certain places will be dangerous, certain trading strategies will be fruitful, etc. If you find yourself doing something extraordinarily well in a random situation, then keep doing what's working but limit your downside. There is nothing wrong with benefitting from randomness so long as you protect yourself from negative random events. Randomness means there are some strategies that work well for any given cycle (an extreme fad diet), but these cycles are often short to medium term successes. More importantly, the strategies that work for a given cycle in the short term may not be the best for long run. They are sub optimal strategies winning over a randomly beneficial short term cycle. The same can said for setting huge goals, following a fad diet, chasing an extreme training protocol, and so on. Unsustainable and suboptimal for the long term. In this way, evolutionary traits that are undesirable can survive for a period of time in any given population. That is, suboptimal strategies and traits can seem desirable in the short run even though they will be resoundingly defeated in the long run. Important point: you can never affirm a statement, merely confirm its rejection. There is a big difference between “this has never happened” and “this will ever happen.” You can say the first, but never truly confirm the second. It just takes one counter example to prove all previous observations wrong. We never know things for sure, only with varying degrees of certainty. There are only two types of ideas. Those that have been proven wrong and those which have yet to be proved wrong. (Feynman said something similar.) Strive to become a man of leisure who can afford to sit with ideas, think properly about them, and gradually provide something of value. Science is speculation. This is important to remember. Scientists are simply creating well-formed and well-educated conjectures about the world. But they are still conjectures that can be proved incorrect by one random event. It's a difficult standard to demand that you can actually implement ideas and not merely share them (there have been many brilliant philosophers and scientists who have had great ideas they didn't personally use), but is an idea really that great if you can stick to it? Obviously, everyone has different skills and circumstances, so maybe someone can use your idea even if you can't. But generally speaking, I think you should be able to live out the ideas you share. Pascal: “the optimal strategy for humans is to believe in the existence of God. For, if God exists, then the believer will be rewarded. If God does not exist, the believer will have nothing to lose.” My first thought: “yes, but what if you believe in the ‘wrong' God?” Should you play a numbers game and believe in the God most people believe in? Or, can we safely assume that of the infinite number of possible Gods humans could have designed it is unlikely that any of the ones we worship are actually the God? So, just believe that a higher power exists? Whew. Tough call here. Social treadmill effect: you get rich, move to a better neighborhood, surround yourself with more successful people, and feel poor again. “Remember that nobody accepts randomness in his own success, only his failure.” Skewness and expectations: you can't just look at the odds of something happening, but also the payoff you receive if it works (and the cost of it failing). A bet on something very unlikely can be smart if the payoff is large and you have rules to limit the many small losses that are likely. Minor stalemates in life can often be solved by choosing randomly. In many cases it doesn't really matter so long as you choose something and move forward. We follow rules not because they are the best options, but because they make things fast and easy. Humans are inherently flawed. The cognitive biases that we have are simply a result of how our brains work. Sometimes these biases help us rather than hurt us. But they are always a result of how we are built. That makes them particularly difficult to avoid. We seem to focus too much on “local” changes, not global ones. That is, we care too much about the latest change rather than the overall trend. “Wealth does not make people happy, but positive increases in wealth may.” We do not think, but use heuristics to make decisions. Emotions are “lubricants of reason.” We actually need to feel things to make decisions. Emotions give us energy and they are actually critical to life in the day-to-day world. In other words, the goal here is not to become a robot who can analyze everything with perfect logic. Even if you know about randomness and cognitive biases, you are still just as likely to fall victim to them. How to overcome these biases? We need tricks. We are just animals and we need to re-structure our environment to control our emotions in a smart way. “Most of us know pretty much how we should behave. It is the execution that is the problem, not the absence of knowledge.” “I try to remind my group each week that we are all idiots and know nothing, but we have the good fortune of knowing it.” Do not blame others for your failures. Even if they are at fault. The only aspect of your life that fortune does not have control over is your behavior. Repetitiveness is key for determining if you are seeing skill or randomness at play. Can't repeat it? Not skillful. “We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible. We scorn the abstract. Everything good — aesthetics, ethics — and wrong — fooled by randomness — with us seems to flow from it.”
Group Psychotherapy with Addicted Populations - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: ABSTRACT Be more effective in group therapy with addicted clients Group Psychotherapy with Addicted Populations: An Integration of Twelve-Step and Psychodynamic Theory, Third Edition is the newly revised edition of the classic text, that provides you with proven strategies for defeating alcohol and drug addiction through group psychotherapy. Philip J. Flores, a highly regarded expert in the treatment of alcoholism and in group psychotherapy brings together practical applications of 12-step programs and psychodynamic groups. This updated book explores the latest in constructive benefits of group therapy to chemically dependent individuals, providing opportunities to share and identify with others who are going through similar problems, to understand their own attitudes about addiction by confronting similar attitudes in others, and to learn to communicate their needs and feelings more directly. Topics in Group Psychotherapy with Addicted Populations: An Integration of Twelve-Step and Psychodynamic Theory, Third Edition include: alcoholism, addiction, and psychodynamic theories of addiction alcoholics anonymous and group psychotherapy use of confrontational techniques in the group inpatient group psychotherapy characteristics of the leader transference in the group resistance in groups preparing the chemically dependent person for group the curative process in group therapy integrating a modern analytic approach a discussion of object relations theory group psychotherapy, AA, and twelve-step programs diagnosis and addiction treatment treatment issues at early, middle, and late stages of treatment a discussion of guidelines and priorities for group leaders countertransference special considerations of resistance to addiction termination of treatment Professionals working in group therapy and addictions will find Group Psychotherapy with Addicted Populations: An Integration of Twelve-Step and Psychodynamic Theory, Third Edition an invaluable resource emphasizing the positive and constructive opportunities group psychotherapy brings to the chemically dependent individual.
It Runs In My Family - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: ABSTRACT This volume offers therapists effective, practical strategies for helping patients overcome the psychological impact of a history of serious illness in the family. Using illustrative case material, the author discusses the feelings of powerlessness that family illness can produce in an individual, and describes techniques for fostering a healthier, more empowered attitude. She shows how various assessment exercises and validation techniques can help the person distinguish between reality and the myths that evolved as a result of the family illness.
Medicinal Plants of the Asteraceae Family: Traditional Uses, Phytochemistry and Pharmacological Activities - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: .1 Introduction Medicinal plants have been an important source of the primary healthcare for prevention and treatment of diseases. Many of these plant species are also used as components of foods, nutraceuticals, functional foods, beverages, cosmetics, dyes, and many other purposes (Khanal et al. 2021). Medicinal plants are one of the important sources of modern drug discovery and development and more than 30% of the drugs currently marketed are derived from natural products (Newman and Cragg 2016; Atanasov et al. 2021).
Encyclopedia of the History of Psychological Theories - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: Some might argue that in the contemporary clinical practice of psycho- therapy, the focus on evidence-based intervention and effective out- come has overshadowed theory in importance. Maybe. But, at the same time, it is clear that psychotherapists adopt and practice according to one theory or another because their experience (and decades of empirical evidence) suggests that having a sound theory of psychotherapy leads to greater therapeutic success. Theory is fundamental in guiding psycho- therapists in understanding why people behave, think, and feel in certain ways, and it provides the guidance to then contemplate what a client can do to instigate meaningful change. Still, the role of theory in the helping process itself can be hard to explain. This narrative about solving problems may help convey theory’s importance: Aesop tells the fable of the sun and wind having a contest to decide who was the most powerful. From above the earth, they spotted a person walking down the street, and the wind said that he bet he could get the person’s coat off. The sun agreed to the contest. The wind blew, and the person held on tightly to his coat. The more the wind blew, the tighter the person held onto his coat. The sun said it was his turn. She put all of her energy into creating warm sunshine, and soon the person took off his coat
The Economics of Recreation, Leisure and Tourism, - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: Now in its third successful edition, The Economics of Leisure and Tourism has been fully revised and updated to cover all the latest issues and changes, and more. Essentially a real world text in applied economics, it explains the necessary economic theories from first principles and applies them to a range of leisure and tourism problems and issues at the consumer, business, national and international level. Key themes discussed are: * How is the provision of leisure and tourism determined and could it be provided in a different way? * What are the key opportunities and threats facing leisure and tourism & environmental impacts? * How can economics be used to manage leisure and tourism? International in its outlook, this text uses examples from Brazil, China, India and Japan, as well as Europe, North America and Australia. With an accompanying website with links and Powerpoint resources for lecturers, this new edition provides: * New chapters on regeneration, tourism as an economic development strategy, globalisation and ppolitical economy of tourism. * Introduction of dependency theory and development economics theories * Liberal use of press cuttings, journal articles and international case studies * User friendly learning features such as: visual mapping of chapter contents, chapter objectives, summaries of key points' short answer questions. * User-friendly and relevant, no 'theory for theory's sake' * Visual mapping of the content of each chapter * Liberal use of press cuttings and international case studies (e.g. North America, Europe and Australia)
International Handbook on the Economics of Tourism - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: Tourism economics is a rapidly expanding field of research and interest in the subject has been growing steadily over the past decade. As a field of study it is one of the small band of areas, such as energy and transport economics, that draws on, and applies, developments in general economics. This highly accessible and comprehensive Handbook presents a cutting edge discussion of the state of tourism economics and its likely directions in future research. Leading researchers in the field explore a wide range of topics including: demand and forecasting, supply, transport, taxation and infrastructure, evaluation and application for policy-making. Each chapter includes a discussion of its relevance and importance to the tourism economics literature, an overview of its main contributions and themes, a critical evaluation of existing literature and an outline of issues for further conceptual and applied research. Larry Dwyer and Peter Forsyth have assembled a fascinating Handbook that will be an invaluable and much welcomed reference book for tourism economics scholars and researchers at all levels of academe. General economics scholars will also find much to engage them within the book.
Tourism Management in the 21st Century - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: Tourism appears to be an industry that anyone can understand, but in reality it is a very complex subject. It is a meeting ground for economics, sociology, anthropology, geography, ecology and national priority issues among other challenges. Issues of employment, prices and contribution to GDP are all a part of the scope of this book, as well. Leaders of countries find themselves thrown from power if they do not convert tourism potential to a revenue stream. This book presents the latest thinking from around the world.
A Century of Air Power the changing face of warfare, 19122012;the changing face of warfare, 1912-2012. - Epub + Converted PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: In this book, A Century of Air Power, Dr Sloggett provides a first-class analysis of the many varied, challenging and innovative uses to which airminded commanders have put this third dimensional capability in the last 100 years
365steps to self-confidence - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: Most of the people I meet in my work perceive themselves as not capable of much. Some don’t even particularly like themselves. I know how they feel. As a young man I felt the same, and it nearly destroyed me before I acquired the confidence to become a teacher, therapist and organiser of personal development and complementary therapy courses. I’ve always thought that if low self-esteem were a physical condition such as cancer or AIDS, or a potentially life-threatening habit like smoking and alcohol and drug abuse, the government would declare a national emergency, pump in massive funds and organise a mass publicity campaign to combat it. Certainly some politicians and educationalists are beginning to pay lip service to it, and hopefully times are changing. But in all my years of full-time education, at school, college and university, I can’t recall a single session on self-esteem. Nor in a 20-year business career were any training resources devoted to it. No one seemed to recognise its importance. Perhaps everyone assumed that nothing could be done, or vaguely hoped that confidence would develop as a by-product of other activities. What advantage is it to send a young person out into the world with a head full of knowledge but without the confidence to use it effectively? I like to think the time will come when every child – whatever their background – will grow up having been taught to believe in themselves and have faith in their ability as a major part of their education. How many lives would be enriched? Now wouldn’t that be exciting?آیا کتاب مورد نظر هنوز بر روی سایت قرار نگرفته است؟ جای نگرانی نیست! کافی است بر روی گزینه سفارش کتاب کلیک کرده و درخواست خود را ثبت کنید. در کمتر از چند ساعت کتاب شما را آماده خواهیم کرد.